Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Coyle 51.5% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 56.4%
Defensive zone
Coyle 88.1%
Neutral zone
Coyle 69.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Nelson
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Nelson
Coyle
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Coyle
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
2
Nelson
Coyle
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Coyle
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
53.0% (1,046)
-6.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
57.6% (144)
-23.1%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
43.6% (287)
-13.2%
On power play, Coyle has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Coyle is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,181).
Home / Away
Nelson
Coyle
Home
48.7% (419)
54.5% (719)
Away
41.3% (368)
48.8% (758)
By Period
Nelson
Coyle
P1
44.6%
51.1%
P2
47.3%
50.0%
P3
43.0%
53.3%
OT
100.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 10:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 15:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 15:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:59 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |