Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs Bedard 40.7% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 64.4%
Defensive zone
Coyle 59.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 54.8%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Coyle
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Coyle
Bedard
Last 7: Coyle 3-4 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
0
2
Coyle
Bedard
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Bedard
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
Bedard
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
38.9% (512)
+14.1%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
43.8% (16)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
25.0% (4)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Coyle is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Coyle shoots right. Bedard is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Coyle
Bedard
Home
54.5% (719)
40.2% (246)
Away
48.8% (758)
37.8% (286)
By Period
Coyle
Bedard
P1
51.1%
39.9%
P2
50.0%
38.5%
P3
53.3%
39.0%
OT
57.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:22 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 01:50 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 08:45 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |