Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Stenlund 54.3% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 58.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 84.8%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 63.7%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Coyle
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Stenlund
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Stenlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
56.1% (615)
-3.8%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
53.2% (47)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
52.1% (307)
-7.3%
On power play, Stenlund has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stenlund
Home
49.0% (537)
57.0% (458)
Away
52.1% (516)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Coyle
Stenlund
P1
48.7%
55.1%
P2
49.6%
53.3%
P3
53.1%
56.4%
OT
45.5%
42.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |