Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Duchene 54.1% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 32-26 in 58 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 51.9%
Defensive zone
Coyle 67.3%
Neutral zone
Coyle 58.0%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Coyle
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
32
(58 meetings)
26
32
Coyle
Duchene
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
12
Coyle
Duchene
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
11
Coyle
Duchene
21 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Coyle
Duchene
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,856)
53.9% (10,396)
-4.5%
Power Play
50.0% (792)
56.9% (1,665)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (1,090)
49.1% (468)
-5.5%
On power play, Duchene has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (6,979).
Coyle shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Coyle
Duchene
Home
49.8% (4,835)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
47.9% (4,903)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Coyle
Duchene
P1
49.4%
54.5%
P2
48.3%
54.5%
P3
48.8%
53.4%
OT
49.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
48.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:44 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 15:05 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 07:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 09:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 07:30 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 06:24 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |