Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Duchene 52.1% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 84.2%
Defensive zone
Coyle 57.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Coyle
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Coyle
Duchene
Last 9: Coyle 6-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Coyle
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
53.0% (723)
-3.5%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
49.5% (101)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
43.8% (16)
-0.4%
On power play, Coyle has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Coyle shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Coyle
Duchene
Home
47.4% (409)
54.9% (408)
Away
50.0% (360)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Coyle
Duchene
P1
50.8%
52.5%
P2
46.0%
51.7%
P3
48.4%
53.6%
OT
64.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |