Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Coyle wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 47.1% vs Duchene 55.3% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 80.4%
Defensive zone
Coyle 78.3%
Neutral zone
Coyle 75.7%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Coyle
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Coyle
Duchene
Last 5: Coyle 0-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Coyle
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Coyle
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (562)
56.0% (579)
-9.4%
Power Play
50.7% (69)
59.3% (108)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (68)
25.0% (8)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Coyle is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Coyle shoots right. Duchene is 62.7% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Coyle
Duchene
Home
44.3% (332)
54.9% (375)
Away
48.8% (367)
57.5% (320)
By Period
Coyle
Duchene
P1
47.5%
58.3%
P2
47.5%
56.7%
P3
45.7%
53.1%
OT
35.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
46.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 09:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 07:30 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |