Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 49.7%). Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Backlund 49.7% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 57.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 61.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.1%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Coyle
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Coyle
Backlund
Last 7: Coyle 4-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Coyle
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
50.1% (891)
+2.2%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
53.1% (64)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
47.8% (278)
-3.0%
On power play, Backlund has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Coyle
Backlund
Home
49.0% (537)
48.1% (580)
Away
52.1% (516)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Coyle
Backlund
P1
48.7%
45.1%
P2
49.6%
54.7%
P3
53.1%
49.0%
OT
45.5%
46.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:58 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:49 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |