Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Coyle wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 51.5% vs Dowd 48.3% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 77.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 63.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Coyle
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Coyle
Dowd
Last 10: Coyle 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
0
Coyle
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
8
Coyle
Dowd
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,046)
49.2% (778)
+3.8%
Power Play
57.6% (144)
58.3% (12)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (287)
44.0% (234)
-0.4%
On even strength, Coyle has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Coyle is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Coyle shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Coyle
Dowd
Home
54.5% (719)
46.3% (492)
Away
48.8% (758)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Coyle
Dowd
P1
51.1%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
48.2%
P3
53.3%
46.9%
OT
57.1%
71.4%
Final 5 min
48.8%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |