Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Dowd 49.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 74.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.2%
Neutral zone
Coyle 57.5%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Coyle
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Dowd
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Coyle
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
51.7% (644)
+0.6%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
0.0% (2)
+44.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
41.6% (221)
+3.2%
On power play, Coyle has a +44.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Coyle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Coyle shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Coyle
Dowd
Home
49.0% (537)
48.6% (451)
Away
52.1% (516)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Coyle
Dowd
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
49.6%
47.3%
P3
53.1%
51.4%
OT
45.5%
30.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |