Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 85.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.5%
Neutral zone
Coyle 50.8%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Coyle
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Coyle
Dowd
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
17
1
Coyle
Dowd
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
15
Coyle
Dowd
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
8
Coyle
Dowd
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,856)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.0%
Power Play
50.0% (792)
56.1% (164)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (1,090)
44.1% (1,635)
-0.5%
On power play, Dowd has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Coyle is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,759).
Coyle shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Coyle
Dowd
Home
49.8% (4,835)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
47.9% (4,903)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Coyle
Dowd
P1
49.4%
51.7%
P2
48.3%
50.4%
P3
48.8%
50.3%
OT
49.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |