Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 50.0%). Look for Coyle on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Aho 50.0% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 68.2%
Defensive zone
Coyle 86.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 54.8%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Coyle
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Coyle
Aho
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Coyle
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
1
Coyle
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (811)
49.9% (851)
+2.4%
Power Play
44.3% (61)
53.5% (144)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (181)
43.3% (60)
+1.5%
On power play, Aho has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Coyle is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Coyle shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Coyle
Aho
Home
49.0% (537)
53.2% (554)
Away
52.1% (516)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Coyle
Aho
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
49.6%
50.8%
P3
53.1%
49.7%
OT
45.5%
58.8%
Final 5 min
49.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |