Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 50.9% vs Duchene 52.8% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.6%
Defensive zone
Tierney 57.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Tierney
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Tierney
Duchene
Last 6: Tierney 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Tierney
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Tierney
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (774)
52.6% (1,112)
-2.5%
Power Play
52.7% (74)
56.0% (193)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (108)
49.0% (49)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tierney is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Tierney shoots left. Duchene is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (873).
Home / Away
Tierney
Duchene
Home
52.6% (483)
55.7% (652)
Away
49.5% (473)
50.4% (702)
By Period
Tierney
Duchene
P1
51.9%
51.4%
P2
47.4%
53.9%
P3
54.1%
53.3%
OT
66.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
47.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
51.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2018 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 03:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 2 | 14:49 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 2 | 14:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 2 | 05:31 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |