Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Dvorak 52.9% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 53.1%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 51.3%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 51.0%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Dvorak
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Dvorak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
0
2
Nelson
Dvorak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dvorak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.7% (762)
-3.0%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
54.0% (124)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
47.6% (82)
-4.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
52.3% (621)
53.6% (461)
Away
48.9% (618)
52.9% (507)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
48.4%
54.1%
P2
53.5%
52.9%
P3
50.3%
53.8%
OT
41.2%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.8%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 13:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |