Christian Dvorak vs Dawson Mercer
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.6% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs Mercer 43.3% (+15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 69.7%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 77.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Dvorak
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Dvorak
Mercer
Last 8: Dvorak 4-4 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
4
Dvorak
Mercer
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
0
Dvorak
Mercer
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
41.0% (212)
+15.4%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
35.7% (14)
+33.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
36.4% (11)
+14.2%
On power play, Dvorak has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Dvorak is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Dvorak shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Mercer
Home
55.1% (501)
45.2% (126)
Away
56.4% (559)
35.1% (111)
By Period
Dvorak
Mercer
P1
55.8%
34.5%
P2
52.5%
43.4%
P3
58.2%
45.8%
OT
63.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:58 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 25, 2025 | OT | 01:51 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 25, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:11 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |