Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 56.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 51.1%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 54.0%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Dvorak
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Dvorak
Staal
Last 10: Dvorak 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dvorak
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
4
Dvorak
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
56.1% (955)
-2.4%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
66.9% (142)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
43.0% (242)
+4.6%
On power play, Staal has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Staal
Home
53.6% (461)
55.4% (663)
Away
52.9% (507)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Dvorak
Staal
P1
54.1%
55.1%
P2
52.9%
54.7%
P3
53.8%
53.9%
OT
36.4%
70.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:20 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 04:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |