Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.2% vs Staal 55.1% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 58.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 56.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.0%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Dvorak
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Dvorak
Staal
Last 10: Dvorak 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dvorak
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
4
Dvorak
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (555)
57.2% (740)
-3.3%
Power Play
52.3% (86)
67.0% (88)
-14.7%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (61)
43.9% (187)
+10.2%
On power play, Staal has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Dvorak is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Dvorak shoots left. Staal is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Staal
Home
53.1% (341)
55.4% (518)
Away
54.3% (361)
55.7% (497)
By Period
Dvorak
Staal
P1
52.8%
53.6%
P2
53.4%
56.6%
P3
55.7%
55.7%
OT
38.5%
65.2%
Final 5 min
47.7%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
52.0%▬
52.0%
53.7%
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:20 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 04:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |