Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs Staal 54.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 53.8%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 50.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 56.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Dvorak
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Dvorak
Staal
Last 10: Dvorak 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Dvorak
Staal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
Dvorak
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
57.0% (1,017)
-0.6%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
57.7% (26)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
45.1% (286)
+5.5%
On power play, Dvorak has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Dvorak is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Dvorak shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Staal
Home
55.1% (501)
54.3% (667)
Away
56.4% (559)
54.7% (662)
By Period
Dvorak
Staal
P1
55.8%
56.2%
P2
52.5%
57.0%
P3
58.2%
49.7%
OT
63.0%
68.4%
Final 5 min
54.9%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 14:32 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:46 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:44 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |