Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 47.1% vs Hayes 46.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 51.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 79.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 66.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Dvorak
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Dvorak
Hayes
Last 6: Dvorak 1-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Dvorak
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Dvorak
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
Dvorak
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (851)
45.4% (788)
+1.5%
Power Play
48.7% (113)
50.0% (56)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (42)
45.2% (124)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Dvorak is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (642).
Dvorak shoots left. Hayes is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hayes
Home
47.5% (526)
46.6% (459)
Away
46.0% (480)
44.8% (509)
By Period
Dvorak
Hayes
P1
48.0%
43.0%
P2
46.3%
49.5%
P3
46.2%
44.7%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
52.0%▬
52.0%
46.8%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 10:46 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 3 | 10:24 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 3 | 07:33 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |