Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.8% vs 57.0%). Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Hayes 56.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 54.5%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 53.1%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 50.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Dvorak
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Dvorak
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Dvorak
Hayes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Dvorak
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (291)
56.6% (724)
+0.4%
Power Play
83.3% (18)
57.0% (79)
+26.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
65.7% (35)
-15.7%
On power play, Dvorak has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Dvorak is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Dvorak shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hayes
Home
58.3% (151)
58.0% (405)
Away
57.4% (190)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Dvorak
Hayes
P1
56.7%
54.7%
P2
56.7%
55.7%
P3
59.6%
60.2%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.8%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
57.8%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:24 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |