Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Roy 47.2% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 54.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 59.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 55.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Dvorak
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dvorak
Roy
Last 6: Dvorak 3-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
Dvorak
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (291)
47.5% (617)
+9.5%
Power Play
83.3% (18)
39.6% (53)
+43.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
46.4% (97)
+3.6%
On power play, Dvorak has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Dvorak is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (125).
Dvorak shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Roy
Home
58.3% (151)
47.2% (398)
Away
57.4% (190)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Dvorak
Roy
P1
56.7%
48.6%
P2
56.7%
48.8%
P3
59.6%
43.9%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
61.8%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
57.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:16 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:07 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 09:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 09:09 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 02:53 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |