Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.9%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 82.2%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 65.9%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Dvorak
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Dvorak
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dvorak
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
58.1% (823)
-4.4%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
56.2% (265)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
62.9% (35)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
53.6% (461)
59.7% (561)
Away
52.9% (507)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
54.1%
51.6%
P2
52.9%
63.8%
P3
53.8%
58.6%
OT
36.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
46.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |