Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.8% vs 55.9%). Dvorak wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs Hertl 55.4% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.7%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 78.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.0%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dvorak
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorak
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
54.1% (717)
+2.3%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
61.9% (210)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
58.1% (31)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
55.1% (501)
58.1% (492)
Away
56.4% (559)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
55.8%
57.1%
P2
52.5%
54.0%
P3
58.2%
56.6%
OT
63.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |