Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 51.8% vs Hertl 54.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.0%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 54.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dvorak
Hertl
Last 8: Dvorak 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorak
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
0
Dvorak
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Dvorak
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (686)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.9%
Power Play
49.0% (104)
59.8% (296)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (127)
34.4% (32)
+19.1%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (575).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
54.1% (423)
54.3% (709)
Away
50.2% (494)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
51.4%
51.6%
P2
52.0%
53.6%
P3
52.4%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 17:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |