Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Dvorak wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.4%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 57.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.6%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dvorak
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dvorak
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (714)
51.6% (1,084)
+4.1%
Power Play
61.1% (131)
61.0% (246)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (122)
44.1% (136)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (553).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
59.0% (432)
55.2% (696)
Away
54.8% (535)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
58.7%
55.4%
P2
53.9%
54.8%
P3
57.2%
48.9%
OT
70.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
56.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:03 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |