Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 50.8%). Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 51.3% vs Hertl 50.7% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 56.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Dvorak
Hertl
Last 5: Dvorak 5-0 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
0
Dvorak
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (943)
51.5% (891)
-0.3%
Power Play
51.6% (122)
54.8% (135)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (74)
41.5% (130)
+11.2%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
53.9% (523)
52.6% (544)
Away
49.2% (616)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
56.7%
49.4%
P2
50.0%
51.7%
P3
46.7%
51.4%
OT
83.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
51.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 00:44 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 1 | 09:01 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |