Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 26 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 51.9% vs Hertl 54.7% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 36-26 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 61.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
26
(62 meetings)
36
26
Dvorak
Hertl
Last 10: Dvorak 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
17
9
Dvorak
Hertl
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
11
6
Dvorak
Hertl
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
11
Dvorak
Hertl
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (714)
55.7% (648)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.7% (157)
60.4% (149)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (191)
42.2% (83)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (835).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
55.0% (516)
58.3% (391)
Away
49.3% (546)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
54.9%
58.9%
P2
51.1%
51.5%
P3
51.0%
54.3%
OT
42.9%
76.9%
Final 5 min
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
52.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 18:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 06:58 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 11:29 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |