Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Gourde 46.0% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 89.6%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 62.5%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 70.5%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Dvorak
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Dvorak
Gourde
Last 8: Dvorak 7-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
1
Dvorak
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
0
Dvorak
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
47.2% (654)
+6.5%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
45.0% (20)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
32.2% (87)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Gourde
Home
53.6% (461)
44.1% (322)
Away
52.9% (507)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Dvorak
Gourde
P1
54.1%
42.4%
P2
52.9%
49.8%
P3
53.8%
44.3%
OT
36.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:43 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:05 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:31 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |