Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 54.6% vs Gourde 52.6% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 64.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 60.4%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 53.4%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Dvorak
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorak
Gourde
Last 5: Dvorak 3-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Dvorak
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (722)
50.0% (132)
+4.0%
Power Play
58.8% (187)
63.6% (22)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
72.2% (18)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dvorak is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Dvorak shoots left. Gourde is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (101).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Gourde
Home
58.6% (444)
64.6% (79)
Away
52.1% (505)
45.2% (93)
By Period
Dvorak
Gourde
P1
54.5%
57.7%
P2
53.6%
47.7%
P3
57.1%
58.2%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 18:46 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |