Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Giroux wins 63.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 60.9% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 81.9%
Defensive zone
Giroux 88.8%
Neutral zone
Giroux 68.1%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Giroux
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Giroux
O'Reilly
Last 5: Giroux 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
1
Giroux
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
0
Giroux
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
60.3% (395)
55.3% (815)
+5.0%
Power Play
67.3% (107)
58.0% (219)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
65.4% (153)
49.2% (124)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (519).
Giroux shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Giroux
O'Reilly
Home
65.9% (337)
55.8% (579)
Away
59.1% (318)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Giroux
O'Reilly
P1
62.1%
57.5%
P2
64.5%
54.7%
P3
60.9%
54.1%
OT
70.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
60.3%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
62.6%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |