Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Giroux wins 63.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Giroux 60.9% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 80.4%
Defensive zone
Giroux 87.8%
Neutral zone
Giroux 65.4%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Giroux
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Giroux
O'Reilly
Last 5: Giroux 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
1
Giroux
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
2
0
Giroux
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Giroux
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
60.3% (395)
55.4% (826)
+4.9%
Power Play
67.3% (107)
57.9% (221)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
65.4% (153)
50.4% (129)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (519).
Giroux shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Giroux
O'Reilly
Home
65.9% (337)
55.8% (579)
Away
59.1% (318)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Giroux
O'Reilly
P1
62.1%
57.7%
P2
64.5%
54.8%
P3
60.9%
54.3%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
62.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |