Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Sillinger 46.9% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 81.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Nelson
Sillinger
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Nelson
Sillinger
Last 8: Nelson 7-1 Sillinger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Sillinger
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Sillinger
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sillinger
0
1
Nelson
Sillinger
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sillinger
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
46.7% (694)
+3.2%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
53.8% (52)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
30.3% (33)
-1.7%
On even strength, Nelson has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sillinger shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Sillinger is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sillinger
Home
49.8% (458)
47.9% (374)
Away
49.0% (506)
45.2% (405)
By Period
Nelson
Sillinger
P1
50.1%
48.5%
P2
45.4%
47.8%
P3
52.7%
42.8%
Final 5 min
47.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Sillinger
44.0%▲
40.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 13:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 13:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 06:37 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |