Scouting Report
Colin Blackwell holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Blackwell on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Blackwell wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 52.4% vs Dowd 49.8% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Blackwell 68.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 61.1%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 50.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Blackwell
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Blackwell
Dowd
Last 5: Blackwell 3-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Blackwell
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blackwell
2
1
Blackwell
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (64)
50.7% (379)
+5.6%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
64.3% (14)
-14.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Blackwell is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (28).
Blackwell shoots right. Dowd is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Dowd
Home
50.0% (16)
53.7% (244)
Away
58.0% (50)
46.6% (307)
By Period
Blackwell
Dowd
P1
50.0%
53.6%
P2
65.4%
44.1%
P3
50.0%
51.9%
Final 5 min
76.9%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
56.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 14:43 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 11:06 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |