Scouting Report
Connor Bedard holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Hughes 36.6% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 70.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 70.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 50.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Bedard
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Bedard
Hughes
Last 8: Bedard 4-4 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
2
Bedard
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
1
Bedard
Hughes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
1
Bedard
Hughes
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
36.0% (2,887)
+4.1%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
38.8% (224)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
31.0% (42)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hughes
Home
43.3% (785)
36.8% (1,670)
Away
38.5% (896)
35.4% (1,483)
By Period
Bedard
Hughes
P1
39.0%
36.9%
P2
40.7%
33.6%
P3
42.6%
38.1%
OT
42.9%
37.5%
Final 5 min
44.9%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:58 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |