Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 39.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 51.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 73.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 67.5%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Bedard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Bedard
O'Reilly
Last 9: Bedard 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Bedard
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Bedard
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Bedard
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
55.0% (1,084)
-16.1%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
56.8% (303)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
40.3% (149)
-15.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bedard is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Bedard shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Bedard
O'Reilly
Home
40.2% (246)
54.8% (759)
Away
37.8% (286)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Bedard
O'Reilly
P1
39.9%
55.3%
P2
38.5%
51.9%
P3
39.0%
54.2%
OT
25.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
46.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
38.9%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |