Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 87.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 87.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 85.8%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
Bedard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
20
(33 meetings)
13
20
Bedard
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
7
Bedard
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
8
Bedard
O'Reilly
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
7
5
Bedard
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
56.2% (15,260)
-16.1%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
58.8% (3,445)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
51.4% (2,811)
-1.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Bedard
O'Reilly
Home
43.3% (785)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
38.5% (896)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Bedard
O'Reilly
P1
39.0%
55.6%
P2
40.7%
57.0%
P3
42.6%
55.1%
OT
42.9%
62.2%
Final 5 min
44.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:35 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |