Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 62.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 61.0%
Neutral zone
Bedard 63.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Bedard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Bedard
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Bedard
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Bedard
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Bedard
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
55.4% (826)
-11.2%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
57.9% (221)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
50.4% (129)
+3.4%
On power play, Bedard has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Bedard
O'Reilly
Home
50.7% (223)
55.8% (579)
Away
42.2% (270)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Bedard
O'Reilly
P1
40.8%
57.7%
P2
48.2%
54.8%
P3
48.0%
54.3%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |