Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-17.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.3%
Defensive zone
Bedard 61.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 50.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Bedard
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Bedard
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Bedard
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Bedard
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
0
Bedard
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
56.2% (983)
-18.2%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
55.5% (254)
-16.8%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
52.0% (102)
+5.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Bedard
O'Reilly
Home
40.5% (316)
56.2% (697)
Away
36.2% (340)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Bedard
O'Reilly
P1
37.2%
54.5%
P2
36.9%
55.5%
P3
40.7%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:35 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |