Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Steel 50.2% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 73.6%
Defensive zone
Bedard 71.7%
Neutral zone
Bedard 76.6%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Bedard
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Bedard
Steel
Last 8: Bedard 2-6 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Bedard
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
Bedard
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
50.6% (2,876)
-10.5%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
62.6% (179)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
37.4% (254)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Bedard
Steel
Home
43.3% (785)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
38.5% (896)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Bedard
Steel
P1
39.0%
51.9%
P2
40.7%
49.5%
P3
42.6%
49.6%
OT
42.9%
41.9%
Final 5 min
44.9%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:12 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 08:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 02:10 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Sam Steel |