Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Steel 52.8% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 80.3%
Defensive zone
Bedard 86.6%
Neutral zone
Bedard 88.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Bedard
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Bedard
Steel
Last 5: Bedard 0-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Bedard
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Bedard
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
56.9% (320)
-18.9%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
71.4% (7)
-32.7%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
37.0% (73)
+20.1%
On power play, Steel has a +32.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Steel is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Bedard
Steel
Home
40.5% (316)
55.9% (202)
Away
36.2% (340)
51.0% (198)
By Period
Bedard
Steel
P1
37.2%
55.5%
P2
36.9%
55.1%
P3
40.7%
50.3%
Final 5 min
43.4%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:12 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 08:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Sam Steel |