Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 54.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 61.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 50.4%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Bedard
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Bedard
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Bedard
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
55.9% (499)
-17.0%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
56.3% (126)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
58.3% (12)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bedard is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Bedard shoots right. Stamkos is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Home / Away
Bedard
Stamkos
Home
40.2% (246)
55.3% (349)
Away
37.8% (286)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Bedard
Stamkos
P1
39.9%
57.0%
P2
38.5%
59.2%
P3
39.0%
51.5%
OT
25.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
46.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 12:56 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |