Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 39.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Stamkos 49.9% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 50.6%
Defensive zone
Bedard 87.5%
Neutral zone
Bedard 72.8%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Bedard
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Bedard
Stamkos
Last 7: Bedard 2-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Bedard
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Bedard
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Bedard
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
49.3% (670)
-11.3%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
53.7% (121)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
33.3% (3)
+23.8%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bedard is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Bedard shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Bedard
Stamkos
Home
40.5% (316)
54.0% (400)
Away
36.2% (340)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Bedard
Stamkos
P1
37.2%
48.6%
P2
36.9%
54.5%
P3
40.7%
45.4%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:25 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:40 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:03 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 13:52 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |