Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 66.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 79.5%
Neutral zone
Bedard 69.0%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Bedard
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bedard
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Bedard
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
56.1% (342)
-11.9%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
53.3% (92)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
62.5% (8)
-8.7%
On power play, Bedard has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bedard is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Bedard shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Bedard
Stamkos
Home
50.7% (223)
53.4% (208)
Away
42.2% (270)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Bedard
Stamkos
P1
40.8%
55.6%
P2
48.2%
52.8%
P3
48.0%
59.1%
OT
57.1%
62.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 07:01 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |