Scouting Report
Connor Dewar holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.5% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 69.3%
Defensive zone
Dewar 75.0%
Neutral zone
Dewar 68.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Dewar
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dewar
Schmaltz
Last 7: Dewar 4-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dewar
Schmaltz
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (331)
38.5% (309)
+7.7%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
53.2% (79)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (68)
25.0% (12)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Dewar has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Dewar is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (125).
Dewar shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Dewar
Schmaltz
Home
43.9% (189)
38.0% (184)
Away
49.3% (221)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Dewar
Schmaltz
P1
50.4%
40.3%
P2
50.0%
39.9%
P3
40.8%
40.7%
Final 5 min
52.0%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.8%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:29 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:56 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |