Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.7% vs Aho 50.0% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 75.0%
Defensive zone
Dewar 76.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.9%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Dewar
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dewar
Aho
Last 6: Dewar 3-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Dewar
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
0
Dewar
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Dewar
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (28)
49.9% (851)
+3.7%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
53.5% (144)
+46.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
43.3% (60)
-12.5%
On power play, Dewar has a +46.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dewar is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (34).
Dewar shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Dewar
Aho
Home
42.1% (19)
53.2% (554)
Away
44.4% (36)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Dewar
Aho
P1
52.6%
49.1%
P2
31.8%
50.8%
P3
53.8%
49.7%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
43.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
43.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |