Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Dewar wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs Aho 51.2% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Dewar leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 91.6%
Defensive zone
Dewar 60.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 59.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Dewar
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Dewar
Aho
Last 10: Dewar 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Dewar
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
5
0
Dewar
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Dewar
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,008)
50.1% (6,619)
-4.7%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
58.9% (1,310)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
41.8% (194)
46.3% (464)
-4.5%
On even strength, Aho has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dewar is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (822).
Dewar shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Dewar
Aho
Home
43.4% (588)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
46.8% (637)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Dewar
Aho
P1
43.9%
51.1%
P2
47.1%
52.0%
P3
44.3%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
45.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 02:40 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |