Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Kempe wins 42.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 43.5% vs McDavid 47.0% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 78.4%
Defensive zone
Kempe 69.9%
Neutral zone
Kempe 75.2%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
Kempe
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
7
(7 meetings)
0
7
Kempe
McDavid
Last 7: Kempe 0-7 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
7
Kempe
McDavid
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (671)
46.9% (862)
-4.3%
Power Play
42.0% (50)
42.1% (38)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
44.4% (18)
+0.0%
On even strength, McDavid has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kempe is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (487).
Kempe shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Kempe
McDavid
Home
43.6% (369)
47.9% (478)
Away
41.6% (370)
45.2% (440)
By Period
Kempe
McDavid
P1
40.0%
45.9%
P2
44.3%
47.7%
P3
43.6%
46.6%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
42.6%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 1 | 11:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 13:57 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 2 | 09:13 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 13:49 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |