Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs McDavid 47.9% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 81.4%
Defensive zone
Horvat 85.9%
Neutral zone
Horvat 81.7%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Horvat
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Horvat
McDavid
Last 6: Horvat 5-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (670)
47.5% (650)
+7.7%
Power Play
61.8% (225)
48.6% (72)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (98)
46.5% (43)
+0.4%
On power play, Horvat has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Horvat is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (597).
Horvat shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Horvat
McDavid
Home
58.1% (449)
50.2% (400)
Away
54.0% (544)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Horvat
McDavid
P1
59.2%
47.5%
P2
53.1%
48.6%
P3
55.8%
46.7%
OT
55.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.9%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |