Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Cozens 52.9% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 51.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
McDavid
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
McDavid
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
52.6% (606)
-5.1%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
58.5% (94)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
33.3% (6)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cozens
Home
50.2% (400)
54.1% (375)
Away
44.7% (365)
52.3% (331)
By Period
McDavid
Cozens
P1
47.5%
55.8%
P2
48.6%
50.6%
P3
46.7%
53.7%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |