Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.4%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Cozens 48.4% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 53.8%
Defensive zone
Cozens 51.6%
Neutral zone
Cozens 50.3%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
McDavid
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
McDavid
Cozens
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Cozens
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
4
5
McDavid
Cozens
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
McDavid
Cozens
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
48.9% (4,075)
-1.2%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
50.4% (714)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
41.0% (439)
+2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Cozens is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,779).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cozens
Home
49.3% (4,570)
48.2% (2,677)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
48.6% (2,551)
By Period
McDavid
Cozens
P1
46.5%
49.1%
P2
48.7%
47.7%
P3
48.3%
48.8%
OT
40.9%
34.3%
Final 5 min
50.1%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 05:40 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 13:42 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 13:10 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 3 | 10:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 13:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |