Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Cozens 48.4% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 50.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.3%
Neutral zone
Cozens 50.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
McDavid
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Cozens
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
McDavid
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
49.4% (859)
+2.1%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
49.5% (186)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
39.5% (129)
+11.7%
On power play, McDavid has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Cozens is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cozens
Home
50.7% (513)
49.0% (600)
Away
53.2% (498)
47.6% (574)
By Period
McDavid
Cozens
P1
52.3%
46.5%
P2
51.6%
52.9%
P3
51.7%
45.2%
OT
100.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
56.5%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 05:40 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |