Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Cozens 45.9% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 70.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
McDavid
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McDavid
Cozens
Last 5: McDavid 3-2 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
McDavid
Cozens
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Cozens
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
46.7% (786)
+4.9%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
43.9% (171)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
42.3% (189)
-5.9%
On power play, McDavid has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Cozens is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cozens
Home
51.8% (415)
46.2% (567)
Away
50.4% (450)
44.9% (579)
By Period
McDavid
Cozens
P1
47.5%
46.5%
P2
51.6%
46.5%
P3
55.5%
44.2%
OT
50.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
50.5%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |